I thought I’d jump on the new near “top trends” bandwagon and provide some observations of my own for information technology for development (ICT4D).

Netbook fever and 1:1 computing in education begin to fade into the background

Ever since Nicholas Negroponte launched the One Laptop per Child project and Intel followed with the Classmate PC, the buzz has been about netbooks for classrooms, or 1:1 computing (one computer for each student).

The reality is that the majority of netbooks sold are not sold to schools, but to middle class consumers who are looking for a smaller notebook form-factor. In my 2009 travels, ministries of education in Latin America seemed to be the most notebook centric. Peru had purchased 150,000 XO laptops. Chile wouldn’t even consider anything that wasn’t mobile. As governments’ emerge from budget lockdown, I predict that they will look for more affordable and realistic options, such as PC labs and desktop computing.

Alternative computing models “cross the chasm.”

A desktop PC or notebook computer has typically been the primary way people in the developing world get exposed to computers and the Internet. That is changing rapidly with the introduction of solutions that significantly lower acquisition and maintenance costs and provide increased energy efficiency over a standard PC or notebook. For example, the company I currently work for, NComputing, sells a product that allows up to 30 users to share one, inexpensive desktop PC by hooking up additional monitors, keyboards, and mice to small access devices and costs about 75% less than a PC and uses 90% less energy. In 2009, NComputing reached 15% of the US market desktop computers in K-12 education.

Microsoft has also embraced “shared computing” for education, announcing a new product called Windows Multipoint Server that will be available later this year. Many developing countries, such as India, Brazil, Pakistan and others, now allow these type of solutions to be bid in addition to standard PCs and notebooks. Just as shared access will prevail over 1:1 computing, virtual desktops will become an increasingly popular option given the tremendous cost savings over traditional desktops.

Mobile phones and Computers

The final trend to watch is whether one form factor – the mobile phone or the computer – will win out over the other in ICT4D. With smart phones providing most of the capabilities of a computer, some argue this will be the ICT device that prevails. But is it really a zero-sum game? My opinion is that the computer and the mobile phone will coexist for the foreseeable future.

Sometimes you just need a full-size keyboard and monitor for an application. And sometimes you just have to be truly mobile (and by mobile I mean being able to transact on the move vs. sitting somewhere with a laptop). At Intel we often talked about “three screens” … the small screen (handheld), the bigger screen (computer), and the biggest screen (TV).

But all of these trends should lead to increased development through access to innovative ICT solutions and services that could be created and driven by social enterprises. I’d love to see a special report from BusinessWeek and The Economist on the convergence of these trends and its impact, but if not, we can always blog about it.

For me, there are two issues that need to be addressed if such a convergence will improve education in the developing world. First, smart phones should have the features that are needed to support education. Among them are:

• The ability to communicate with multiple people simultaneously would allow teachers to communicate with multiple students and students to communicate with each other. This would support group discussions.
• The ability to access multimedia content. More and more educational content is multimedia—audio, video, graphics—this is increasingly important in helping students understand complex concepts and principles.
• The ability to run simulations and other applications. Learning is so much more than just accessing content. Students must be actively involved in their learning. Games, simulations, and other applications allow students to engage with complex ideas and apply them in creative ways.
• The ability to create and post text and multimedia content. It is important for students to also be able to generate content, not just access and use it. Tools will be needed that allow students to generate and post their own online contributions.
• The ability to collaborate on these tasks. Students learn most when they interact with each other, as well as the content. Tools that allow students to generate content should support their ability to work with each other—to contribute to joint products, to edit, to comment.

This is a pretty powerful set of capabilities. Sounds a lot like a computer, right? It’s a lot to ask of a phone. But this is what is required of technology if it is to contribute to educational improvement. Are we going to see these on an inexpensive handset in the near future? Beyond the “$100 laptop”, are we going to have a “$20 iPhone”?

Even if we have a “$20 iPhone”, will these powerful features by themselves sufficient to improve education in the developing world?

No, not when teachers are still focused on teaching and assessing rote learning. I continue to insist that we need a significant realignment in curriculum, pedagogy, assessment, and teacher training that emphasizes knowledge creation, collaboration, and sharing. This will prepare students in the developing world to participate in the global knowledge economy and information society. It is only then that the immense potential of ICT – computers or smart phones – will be realized.

What do you think?